Fooled by Randomness


More about Fooled by Randomness

Reading this book has been a life changing experience for me.

Granted, many of the concepts are not exactly groundbreaking, but no one has ever been able to put together such an easy to understanding, entertaining, and, most importantly, RELEVANT framework for understanding the role of randomness in life. For example, similar concepts have been explored in A Mathematician Plays the Market by John Allen Paulos. But compared to NNT, who manages to not just inform but to CONVINCE, Paulos' work is dry and abstract.

NNT's tenet is that we as human need to understand, through science, the limits of our mind in coping with randomness. Our brain is wired to understand and store things as narratives, with cause and consequence and meaning. We always unconsciously misjudge the meanings of probability and randomness, and the failure to anticipate for the worst is usually the gravest mistake a person can make. NNT's goal is to pound the evidence of human fallacy into the reader and to make sure that, while still complete idiots, the reader would be one of the few who are privileged with the knowledge of his idiocy.

I am completely converted by NNT, because he manages to bring together many rules and evidences that I have always known to address a wide range of suspicions that I have always had. However, now that my understanding of the world has been thoroughly changed, I need some guidance on how I should behave. NNT has given plenty of examples in this book - e.g. if you're going to trade, never expose yourself to any possibility of a massive loss; or, just make small but steady money by being a broker - but it is difficult to apply them to the wider world. When I excitedly tell my husband about the brilliant and inspiring ideas in this book, he drove me speechless by three very simple questions - "How can all those improve my well-being? How can it help me in launching next Fall's product line?"

I am positive that, in time, the answers can be found in this book or future works by NNT. "Fooled by Randomness" is definitely one of the several books that I am planning to read over and over again.

To further explore the inner working of our irrational mind, I have started reading Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert. It is great fun so far - the only problem being that people would look at me funny as if I'm reading a pathetic self-help book!

30位老師衝擊試場爭學生


A good reminder of how good our teachers' lives are, comparatively.

30位老師衝擊試場爭學生
2007年7月12日

江蘇泰州兩所重點學校為爭學生發生衝突,30多名老師衝入試場撕毀學生的試卷,警員到場控制場面。

揚子晚報報道,10日上午,數百名來自各地的初中畢業生,來到姜堰中學參加該校自主招生考試。因擔心已經成為本校高一新生的生源出現流失,當天上午,興化中學的30多名老師,在拿著介紹信討要說法無果的情況下,衝進姜堰中學考場,撕毀學生試卷,想阻止考試的進行,場面一度失控。

姜堰中學姓錢的老師表示,按往年慣例,該校每年到這個時候,都要進行一次「自主招生」,目的是補充統招新生的不足。他說,今年該校高一年級已經通過統招等方式錄取了1000名新生,但由於下學期該校高一年級共設24個班,按每班60人計算,尚欠400名新生。當天,按計劃,該校對數百名來自不同地方的初中畢業生,進行統一考試。

錢老師回憶,當天上午8點多,兩位興化中學的老師首先進入他們學校,10點多,興化中學又來了30多名老師,他們一齊向考場走去。走進考場,他們撕毀了一些同學的試卷,與本校老師發生了衝突。不久,姜堰市公安局城東派出所的民警接報後趕到了現場。當天中午12點多,興化中學的老師才陸續離開姜堰中學。

興化中學校長辦公室的一位高老師說,按道理,中考早就過去,各學校高一新生的錄取工作也已經結束。姜堰中學此時招生,明顯違規,姜堰中學還接受已被錄取為興化中學高一新生的學生的考試報名,此行為有可能把興化中學已經成型的招生計劃打亂。

高老師說,當天上午,他們老師一行去姜堰中學,就是向該校討說法的。最後,在警方的協調下,姜堰中學同意不錄取已經被興化中學錄取的新生,他們老師這才回來。

- 明報即時新聞,二〇〇七年七月十二日