Reading this book has been a life changing experience for me.

Granted, many of the concepts are not exactly groundbreaking, but no one has ever been able to put together such an easy to understanding, entertaining, and, most importantly, RELEVANT framework for understanding the role of randomness in life. For example, similar concepts have been explored in A Mathematician Plays the Market by John Allen Paulos. But compared to NNT, who manages to not just inform but to CONVINCE, Paulos' work is dry and abstract.

NNT's tenet is that we as human need to understand, through science, the limits of our mind in coping with randomness. Our brain is wired to understand and store things as narratives, with cause and consequence and meaning. We always unconsciously misjudge the meanings of probability and randomness, and the failure to anticipate for the worst is usually the gravest mistake a person can make. NNT's goal is to pound the evidence of human fallacy into the reader and to make sure that, while still complete idiots, the reader would be one of the few who are privileged with the knowledge of his idiocy.

I am completely converted by NNT, because he manages to bring together many rules and evidences that I have always known to address a wide range of suspicions that I have always had. However, now that my understanding of the world has been thoroughly changed, I need some guidance on how I should behave. NNT has given plenty of examples in this book - e.g. if you're going to trade, never expose yourself to any possibility of a massive loss; or, just make small but steady money by being a broker - but it is difficult to apply them to the wider world. When I excitedly tell my husband about the brilliant and inspiring ideas in this book, he drove me speechless by three very simple questions - "How can all those improve my well-being? How can it help me in launching next Fall's product line?"

I am positive that, in time, the answers can be found in this book or future works by NNT. "Fooled by Randomness" is definitely one of the several books that I am planning to read over and over again.

To further explore the inner working of our irrational mind, I have started reading Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert. It is great fun so far - the only problem being that people would look at me funny as if I'm reading a pathetic self-help book!

A good reminder of how good our teachers' lives are, comparatively.

30位老師衝擊試場爭學生
2007年7月12日

江蘇泰州兩所重點學校為爭學生發生衝突，30多名老師衝入試場撕毀學生的試卷，警員到場控制場面。

揚子晚報報道，10日上午，數百名來自各地的初中畢業生，來到姜堰中學參加該校自主招生考試。因擔心已經成為本校高一新生的生源出現流失，當天上午，興化中學的30多名老師，在拿著介紹信討要說法無果的情況下，衝進姜堰中學考場，撕毀學生試卷，想阻止考試的進行，場面一度失控。

姜堰中學姓錢的老師表示，按往年慣例，該校每年到這個時候，都要進行一次「自主招生」，目的是補充統招新生的不足。他說，今年該校高一年級已經通過統招等方式錄取了1000名新生，但由於下學期該校高一年級共設24個班，按每班60人計算，尚欠400名新生。當天，按計劃，該校對數百名來自不同地方的初中畢業生，進行統一考試。

錢老師回憶，當天上午8點多，兩位興化中學的老師首先進入他們學校，10點多，興化中學又來了30多名老師，他們一齊向考場走去。走進考場，他們撕毀了一些同學的試卷，與本校老師發生了衝突。不久，姜堰市公安局城東派出所的民警接報後趕到了現場。當天中午12點多，興化中學的老師才陸續離開姜堰中學。

興化中學校長辦公室的一位高老師說，按道理，中考早就過去，各學校高一新生的錄取工作也已經結束。姜堰中學此時招生，明顯違規，姜堰中學還接受已被錄取為興化中學高一新生的學生的考試報名，此行為有可能把興化中學已經成型的招生計劃打亂。

高老師說，當天上午，他們老師一行去姜堰中學，就是向該校討說法的。最後，在警方的協調下，姜堰中學同意不錄取已經被興化中學錄取的新生，他們老師這才回來。

A record of history,
by 1of@kind

六四的時候，我整家人都在荷蘭，陪爸爸進修。

由五月開始，我們每天晚上都伏在很小很小的黑白電視前，焦急的希望在荷蘭文的電視台找到報道六四的片言隻語。

爸爸有幾個同學是從國内來的，都與廣場上的年輕人一般的血氣方剛，對明日充滿希望。爲了聲緩廣場上的同胞，他們搞了好幾個遊行。我們一家都有上街，對這麽一個新時代的來臨既興奮又憂心。當時的我很小，才九歲，連去遊行也要帶一本金庸，邊喊口號邊看書。

當時只知道中國的人民要民主，是自從文革後第一次有這麽大型、有秩序的公開民間訴求。但中國政府不愛聼，就派兵把人都殺了。

經過這麽多年，聽到的，認知的，有了許多complications。永遠沒有人能掌握歷史的全部。人的性格、思想、觀念也不斷的轉變。

可是，有些事實也不容改寫。有人死了。是政府殺的。無論是什麽情況下發生、無論是死了多少人，這都不對。這麽多年來，還是不容許討論、不平反，這都不對。

十八年了。我們會有一天等到嗎？

今晚見。

逾七成人對情色版字眼反感

一項調查顯示，74%的受訪者對中大學生報情色版所用的某些字眼反感，但大部份人均接設受情色版的原意。

新青年論壇和學友社在本月18至22日，訪問了940名市民，74%的受訪者對中大學生報情色版問卷調查的某些字眼感到反感，近43%受訪者認為，應該進一步處罰學生報編輯。

受訪的市民多數都認為學生做錯，但大部分受訪認為，學生報可以開放討論性問題，反映市民接受學生報設立情色版的原意。

這樣的民調，做來作啥？？？

74%的受訪者對中大學生報情色版問卷調查的某些字眼感到反感

• 受訪者有沒有看過問卷調查的原文？（還是由調查員以憤怒的聲線讀出他最不喜歡的一句？）
• 什麽是「某些字眼」？（你不喜歡一、我不喜歡二，這就算是兩個人不喜歡「某些字眼」，儘管其實每個字眼都只有一個人不喜歡）
• 什麽是反感？（我對謀殺這種行爲很反感。我乘地鐵時，對在我旁邊的人挖鼻子也很反感。我看記者的文筆不通暢，算不算是感到反感？）

43%受訪者認為，應該進一步處罰學生報編輯

• 什麽是進一步處罰？（我想罰他留堂、你想把他斬首，都是處罰啊。）
• 爲什麽只給我一個選擇，只是處罰學生報編輯？（我想處罰中大校方多一點）

受訪的市民多數都認為學生做錯，但大部分受訪認為，學生報可以開放討論性問題

• 登登登櫈！各位，這叫僞 • 善。

還有，這個調查是怎樣選調查對象的？像新青年論壇和學友社這樣有特定觀衆的機構，它選受訪者時很可能有偏重，但這篇報道卻沒有把這樣基本的情況列明。


這樣低水準的調查，不清不楚、不盡不實。還是省省大夥兒力氣，不要做、不要報道了吧。

_____________


今天報紙刊登了更詳細的調查結果。調查明顯比以上即時報道所形容的有層次得多。因此，我願意把我大部分的批評收回。可惜的是，報紙仍然是選擇性地報道調查内容，有幾條問題都沒有提起。

An excellent article from last week's GQ. A very humane look into the miners of America. While us Chinese people are tragically used to hearing about mining accidents that killed dozens of people in the news every now and then, this industry is largely forgotten in the developed world. However, with a quarter of the world's reserve of coal, the United States employs over 80,000 miners in extracting the "freedom fuel" from its land everyday.

Coal, if it disappeared from the nation's consciousness, never went away. This is America, and this is our fossil fuel, a $27.6 billion industry that employs nearly 80,000 miners in twenty-six states. We are sitting on 25 percent of the world's supply—the “Saudi Arabia of Coal!”—and lately we've been grabbing it in record amounts, gorging on the black rock the Bush administration calls "freedom fuel."

The question I had going in was almost ridiculous in nature: If coal is really this big, and all these people really exist, how is it that I know nothing about them?

The ceiling is five feet high, and so you can’t, actually, stand up. You look around and everyone is walking around like the freaks in Being John Malkovich. “Okay, they should make it higher,” I said to Foot the first time I experienced this. I wanted to call a congressman or something. This was ridiculous. There are people in here! Everyone’s doing a duck walk, hands clasped behind their backs to give the body balance as they lean over and waddle. You work your whole ten-hour shift like that, duck-walking through the darkness, nothing but a pinpoint of light shining from your hat to tell you which rat tunnel is which. A rat. You feel like a rat.

Someone should turn this into a service business. Seriously.




(Via Catwalk Queen)

This is a perfect illustration of how irrational the market is in China. Literally a 10-year old child could make money in today's market.

What goes up must come down. How many cycles does it take for people to really learn this adage?

深圳小股神10歲炒股

深圳一名10歲「小股神」，3歲開始看股票新聞，7歲開始為父母炒股出謀劃策，10歲下了第一單。

「南方網」報道，小股神尹航的母親周女士說，懷尹航時，正是其上班公司股票上市其間，她每天挺著肚子整理、審核數據。也許因為她的這一工作和生活習慣，尹航從小就對數據和股票資訊非常敏感。尹航出生後，脾氣暴躁，但一打開電視讓他聽新聞或股票行情，他就會立刻安靜下來。

周女士表示，從3歲多到7歲，看新聞聯播和各類經濟新聞，成了尹航每天最大的樂趣。此外，他也開始虛擬炒股，以檢驗自己的能力。2004年上半年，中國全國股市熊市時。一次，7歲的尹航跟媽媽到深圳歡樂谷遊玩，發現遊客非常多，聽媽媽說歡樂谷是華僑城公司的項目後，尹航認定其股票一定會漲。尹航再三要求媽媽買華僑城的股票。剛開始，媽媽沒有聽。尹航急到哭了，媽媽這才買了。沒想到，兒子的這一建議，讓周女士獲益頗豐。她說，「也就是從那時起，我發現他的眼光很獨到，我跟丈夫炒股現在也全聽他的指揮。」

因為對股票的專注和興趣，爸爸決定給尹航一次實戰機會——今年1月15日，爸爸投資1.4萬元 (人民幣，下同)作為尹航的炒股基金，賺得的資金八二分帳，爸爸八，尹航二。拿到啟動資金後，尹航興奮地開始了自己人生第一單，他用這些錢購買了3隻股票，其中，深振業A購買時是13.12元，現在，該股票已上漲到22元，收穫頗豐富。而短短幾個月，尹航已通過爸爸的投資賺到了自己的小學學費。

但尹航並不滿足於這些，他表示，他想將自己賺得的錢融入到他和爸爸的炒股基金中，以此來稀釋爸爸的股份，最終獲得話事權，以後再要賣哪隻股票時，可以不通過爸爸的建議就自己直接購買了。

There is so much happening these days besides the storm in a tea cup at the Chinese University:

Eurovision Song Contest 2007

Excellent coverage at Wiki, BBC, with commentary from the Fug Girls and the Maestro Manolo. One huge draw back of Hong Kong's television offering is that I am not given the chance to ogle this annual European camp galore LIVE.

The screenwriter of Borat is going to make a movie about Eurovision!!! Possibly the best movie concept I have ever heard.

Clio Awards

The much-forwarded washing machine commercial turns out to be a contemporary work + has won the grand prize in the TV category at this year's Clio Awards. StuffIt's print ad is very clever. The Nike+ online community that has won in the interactive category is, of course, smart and supremely functional.